Achievement

Trainee Trisha Spanbauer was invited to the Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences to collaborate on a project assessing regimes shifts in paleo time. Data analysis focused on statistically identifying regime shifts using a 8000 year time series of data from Foy Lake, MT, with an approximately 10 year resolution. The suspected regime shift was identified. Currently efforts are focused on assessing regional lakes to determine if there was synchrony in the regime shifts, and in using multidimensional time series modeling to assess regime shifts. Further collaborations are assessing discontinuities in the data over time, and how increased variance in population abundance over time proximate to discontinuities might provide an early warning signal of impending regime change.